Government forecasts of HS2 demand 'very cautious'

THE pro-HS2 campaigning group Greengauge21 is urging that the first phase of the new High Speed line should include a connection to the East Midlands.

The group is also contradicting HS2's critics by describing the government's forecasts of demand as 'very cautious'.

“This is about much more than just one new railway line,” said Greengauge21 director Jim Steer.

He continued: “This is the first stage in the development of a national high-speed rail network which will provide much-needed transport capacity and deliver transformational economic benefits. HS2 is affordable and represents good value for money. The wider national network should link all Britain’s major cities and bring a significant reduction in carbon from the transport sector.” 

In a 'Position Statement', Greengauge21 said it warmly welcomed the government’s proposals to develop the initial route from London to the West Midlands and supported the technical work that underpins the scheme. 

“The only issue that we have with the work carried out so far”, added Mr Steer, “is that in several ways it is too conservative. The demand forecasts and assessment of carbon benefits are very cautious and our own work suggests that the value for money of the proposals – while good – should in practice be even better.

“There is a substantial body of research on high-speed rail available on the Greengauge 21 website, which we hope the public, local authorities and businesses – including those in the corridor between London and the West Midlands –  will find informative, if they care to look.”

However, although many of the route's opposers maintain that the official forecasts are too vague and, if anything, on the optimistic side, new figures from the Birmingham Chamber of Commerce have revealed that more than two out of three businesses in the city are backing the High Speed plans.

A survey by the Chamber indicates that 72 per cent of  Birmingham and Solihull businesses believe that HS2 will open up inward investment, employment and economic prosperity opportunities for the future.

Birmingham Chamber is a member of the Go-HS2 alliance. Other members include Centro, Birmingham Airport, The NEC Group, Birmingham City Council and Business Birmingham, the city’s inward investment agency.

President of the Chamber, Christine Braddock, said: "Reduced travel times and increased capacity will create new market opportunities, attract inward investment and increase the region’s access to customers."

The survey also revealed that 75 per cent thought HS2 could have a similar impact here as it has in other countries such as France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan and China.

The distances between population centres in Britain are roughly comparable to that of other countries with HSR networks such as Germany, where the most successful high speed service is between Frankfurt and Cologne. The two cities are 177km (110 miles) apart – the same distance as between London and Birmingham.

Dr Braddock added: "Unemployment in our region is 9.7 per cent, so developing sustainable long-term jobs is paramount. We require skilled jobs that won’t disappear, which this region has failed on over the last decade.

"With London benefiting from Crossrail and Thameslink, the business community here in Birmingham is desperate to also benefit from investment in first-class transport links which would no doubt help re-balance the economy."

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